Bitcoin Traders Brace for Impact: $40B in Options Set to Expire Friday

Bitcoin Hovers Above $107K Ahead of Massive $40B Options Expiry

Market Braces for Friday’s High-Stakes Options Showdown

Bitcoin is holding steady above $107,000 as crypto traders worldwide gear up for one of the year’s biggest events — a $40 billion options expiry happening this Friday on Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $107,500, down slightly by 0.2% over the past 24 hours. In contrast, the CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the top 20 non-stablecoin cryptos, has dipped 0.9%.

But all eyes are now locked on Friday’s looming quarterly options expiry, which could bring sudden volatility — or mark the beginning of a quieter phase for Bitcoin.

What’s Happening on Friday

According to Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, nearly 38% of all BTC options contracts will expire this Friday.

“This Friday marks one of the largest option expiries of the year,” said Péquignot.

• Total BTC options open interest: $40 billion

• Max pain price: $102,000

• Put/Call ratio: 0.73

The max pain price — the price at which most traders would lose money on their options contracts — sits at $102,000, a level that could create selling pressure if traders rush to exit or adjust positions before expiry.

Why Is the Max Pain Price Important

Traders often try to manipulate the market toward the max pain price before expiry to gain an edge. If Bitcoin drops closer to $102K, it could invalidate many call options, benefiting those who sold these contracts.

However, as long as Bitcoin stays above $105,000, bulls are expected to remain in control — at least technically.

Implied Volatility Drops: What It Means

Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV), which represents expected price movement, has been declining sharply.

• April IV: 50%

• Current IV: 38% (as measured by Deribit DVOL index)

This decline suggests that traders expect less wild price movement in the short term. In fact, it could be a sign that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge — similar to gold.

“Low open interest in perpetuals and fairly depressed Bitcoin implied volatility and skew are indicative of limited expectations for sharp price movements going into Friday’s expiry,” added Péquignot.

Put-Call Skew Shows No Clear Direction

Another metric worth watching is the put-call skew — which tells us if traders are leaning bearish (puts) or bullish (calls).

As of now, the skew appears neutral, indicating no strong directional bias in the market. This adds more uncertainty to what Friday could bring.

$105K: The Technical Battleground

Why This Level Matters:

• Strong support zone

• Failure could trigger downside

• Breakout above $108K may signal bullish continuation

Péquignot emphasized that $105,000 is a pivotal support level. If Bitcoin fails to hold this range, short-term traders may exit positions — potentially causing a sharper decline.

Crypto Stocks Shine Amid BTC Stalemate

While Bitcoin treads water, crypto-related stocks are making headlines — especially Core Scientific (CORZ), which surged more than 33% after the Wall Street Journal reported that AI hyperscaler CoreWeave is considering a takeover bid.

If the acquisition goes through, it would represent a major crossover between AI infrastructure and crypto mining, further blending two of the hottest tech sectors of 2025.

Other crypto-linked stocks also posted moderate gains on Thursday, signaling that investor confidence in blockchain infrastructure remains strong, even if Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range.

What Could Happen Next? 3 Scenarios

1. Bullish Scenario

• BTC holds above $105K and breaks $108K

• Expiry passes smoothly, volatility returns

• BTC targets $110K+

2. Neutral Scenario

• BTC hovers between $105K–$108K

• No major moves post-expiry

• Traders stay sidelined awaiting fresh catalysts

3. Bearish Scenario

• BTC drops toward max pain price of $102K

• Expiry triggers selling pressure

• BTC falls below key support zones

 Calm Before the Storm or False Alarm

This Friday could be a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin in the short term. With $40 billion in options set to expire and $102K max pain level in sight, the market could swing — or surprisingly stay steady.

Either way, traders, investors, and institutions are watching closely.

Whether Bitcoin dives or rallies, one thing is clear: crypto markets are entering a new phase of strategic hedging and technical awareness. The days of random price pumps may be over — and the age of macro-level crypto positioning is here.

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